我国居民消费水平的计量分析及对策建议.doc

Abstract: based on the history of residents in our country consumption level and status study to establish the consumption level of economic model, and the model of the main variables influence extent of model, and based on this, puts forward improving consumer level of countermeasures.

Keywords: consumer level influence factor model analysis countermeasures
内容摘要：通过对我国居民消费水平的历史及现状研究，建立了居民消费水平的经济模型，并研究了模型中主要变量对模型的影响程度，在此基础上提出了提高居民消费水平的对策建议。
关键词：居民消费水平 影响因素 模型分析 对策建议
3、模型中将居民消费水平作为被解释变量，根据经验引入国内生产总值、城乡居民人均收入、人口自然增长率、居民消费价格指数，对模型进行回归分析，以求能使模型具有更高的可操作性。
obs Y X1 X2 X3 X4 X5
1978 184.0000 3624.100 343.4000 133.6000 12.00000 100.7000
1979 207.0000 4038.200 405.0000 160.2000 13.34000 101.9000
1980 236.0000 4517.800 477.6000 191.3000 11.87000 107.5000
1981 262.0000 4862.400 500.4000 223.4000 14.55000 102.5000
1982 284.0000 5294.700 535.3000 270.1000 15.68000 102.0000
1983 311.0000 5934.500 564.6000 309.8000 13.29000 102.0000
1984 354.0000 7171.000 652.1000 355.3000 13.08000 102.7000
…………
假定模型中随机误差项 满足古典假定，运用OLS法估计模型参数，结果如下：
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/12/05 Time: 14:50
Sample: 1978 2002
Included observations: 25
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 93.22748 10.02780 9.296901 0.0000
…………Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/12/05 Time: 15:19
Sample: 1978 2002
Included observations: 25
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -34.31193 19.08905 -1.797467 0.0860
X2 0.352578 0.047965 7.350744 0.0000
X3 0.502716 0.135078 3.721667 0.0012
R-squared 0.998600 Mean dependent var 1418.120
Adjusted R-squared 0.998473 S.D. dependent var 1269.558
S.E. of regression 49.61351 Akaike info criterion 10.75857
Sum squared resid 54153.00 Schwarz criterion 10.90483
Log likelihood -131.4821 F-statistic 7846.542
Durbin-Watson stat 1.349085 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

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